pandemics:Monitoring a Developing Pandemic with Available Data
Full dynamic system to describe and forecast the spread and the severity of a developing pandemic, based on available
data. These data are number of infections, hospitalizations,
deaths and recoveries notified each day. The system consists of
three transitions, infection-infection, infection-hospital and
hospital-death/recovery. The intensities of these transitions
are dynamic and estimated using non-parametric local linear
estimators. The package can be used to provide forecasts and
survival indicators such as the median time spent in hospital
and the probability that a patient who has been in hospital for
a number of days can leave it alive. Methods are described in
Gámiz, Mammen, Martínez-Miranda, and Nielsen (2024)
<doi:10.48550/arXiv.2308.09918> and
<doi:10.48550/arXiv.2308.09919>.
